Talk:Roaming Pokémon/@comment-28262185-20180228200849/@comment-26930508-20180307115525

Well, lets make the calculations:

Without shiny charm/ro powers, shiny bagon's chance is 1/80 x 1/4096, which equals 1/327680.

Imagine that you have released the minimal number of roamings to find celebi (hoopa, latios/latias and celebi). In this case, the chance to find hoopa is 4/9. To find latios, latias or celebi respectively, you have the 5/9 chance ÷ 3, which gives 1.66% recurring. Finally, to find Celebi's rate you do 1/1000 (legend rate) x 1/166 which gives 1/166,000.

Also taking into account that Celebi can be found literally almost anywhere and shiny Bagon is one location only (unless you count eggs), we can conclude that shiny bagon is indeed rarer.

Then imagine Celebi's rate with ALL the legends released including marshadow.

Actually let's figure that out:

4/9 is set encounters, and there are 15 set encounters. 4 ÷ 15 = 0.266% recurring, so the chance of finding each set encounter legend is 0.266%. Then we have default roamings, there are 12 roamings so: 3 ÷ 12 = 0.25%. There we have our specific roaming rate. Finally we have the rarest scale "requires group members to unlock". There are only four of them, so 2 ÷ 4 = 0.5.

 Finally, to find Celebi's individual rate, we do 1/1000 x 1/125 = 1/125000.

 Our results are

 Shiny Bagon: 1/327680

Celebi (with the minimum legends released): 1/166000

Celebi (with the maximum legends released): 1/125000

We can conclude that Shiny Bagon is rarer in both cases.

